Making sense of the holiday sales

As any retailer would tell you, it is difficult anymore to predict the ebbs and flows of the economy. This was as evident as ever on Tuesday, when three of the industry’s largest chains reported sales for the all-important months of November and December.

News from Tiffany & Co. that “sales weakened markedly in the United States and Europe” over the holiday season surprised me. Tiffany has been one of the strongest performers in the market in recent years, seemingly one of the first jewelry chains to begin showing signs of economic recovery after the global meltdown.

Overall, same-store sales in the U.S. were up 2 percent for the chain. Sales declined 1 percent in the brand’s flagship store on Fifth Avenue in New York, with foreign tourists accounting for the bulk of the sales there. Same-store sales were up 3 percent in Tiffany’s branch stores.

Also interesting to note were the results from Zale Corp., where holiday comps were up 6 percent but there was a marked difference between the months of November and December. The chain’s comps climbed 10 percent in November but only 4 percent the next month.

While both Tiffany and Zale comped positive, their overall results have sparked concern among analysts that consumer spending is on the decline heading into the new year.

During a conference call Tuesday morning, analysts asked executives Sterling Jewelers about the results reported by Tiffany and Zale. They wanted to know if Sterling was concerned about Valentine’s Day given what seems to be a pattern of waning consumer spending. (Sterling executives said no.)

Zale’s December comps were less than half of what they were in November.

And Tiffany noted that sales weakened at the end of the year after three “very strong” quarters of better-than-expected sales and earnings growth. In this article, Forbes contrasted the results of Tiffany with that of high-end athletic apparel retailer Lululemon, which had a strong holiday season and raised its guidance. Forbes wonders if consumers are “reigning in their spending on jewelry.”

In reading all of this news over the past couple of days, it brought to mind something I reported early on in the holiday shopping season, during one of our many Black Friday wrap-up stories. In this story, one analyst noted that while consumers flooded stores right after Thanksgiving to take advantage of deals, they were less enthusiastic about shopping thereafter. They were “tapped out,” the analyst said.

If consumers were “tapped out” in late November, how are they feeling now, as they sit amidst piles of bills that they accumulated buying holiday presents, throwing parties and traveling?

I think the answer is: Nobody really knows anymore.